ANALYSIS: The construction sector continues to decline, despite the GDP growth

According to the preliminary estimates of the National Statistics Institute (INS), the GDP of Romania's grew by 3.8% both as gross and seasonally adjusted series in the first three months of this year compared to the same period in 2013. According to the same institution, the increase compared to the last quarter of last year, is of 0.1%. After 2013, when our economy has exceeded all estimates and reached an increase of 3.5% (largely due to the industry sector) a possible evolution of 3.3% for 2014 is predicted, at least statistically, by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). The available data regarding the foreign trade for the first two months of this year indicate significant increases both at the level of imports (which grew by 9.4%) and exports (9.2%), from where it can be concluded that, unlike last year, when the economic growth was due mostly to the industry sector, this year, the commerce will be an important factor of evolution. According to the latest reports from EIU, it is estimated that Romania's GDP will accelerate strongly in 2015 (+3.8%). During April 2013 - March 2014, the annual inflation rate reached a record low (-2.3%) - which determined the National Bank of Romania to continue to adjust the monetary policy rate - and also reached in February 2014 a new low value of 3.5%, which will encourage lending. The exchange rate was relatively stable in the first three months of this year, oscillating between 4.45 and 4.53 RON for one EUR. The government debt remained below 39% of GDP and was the fourth lowest in the European Union while the new budget deficit target for 2014 is of 2.5% of GDP. Even in this unexpectedly favourable context for the economy in early 2014, the construction sector continued to decline, mainly due to the significant reduction of sector infrastructure works. Thus, according to the latest data from INS, the volume of construction works decreased in the first four months of this year, with 9.2% as gross series and 8.7% as series adjusted by number of working days and seasonality.