ANALISYS: Uncertain prospects of growth in the thermal insulating joinery field

Although, in the second half of this year resuming the upward trend in sustainable conditions of the Romanian fenestration market is more likely that in the recent past, the managers of many companies in the industry take conservative initiatives, without neglecting strategic aspects of training in the eventuality of a revival in demand. Moreover, the latest market research conducted for the East European - CEE (which includes Romania) are filled by caution and provide a depreciation of orders and obviously of the production on medium term. According to the latest research of Interconnection Consulting Group - Austria, in the previous 12 months joinery industry in CEE markets (including Russia and Ukraine) was valued at 39.78 million window units, corresponding to sales of 5.34 billion euro, and the forecast for 2018 refers at a production of 29.7 million units corresponding to a value of 3.6 billion euro. In a narrower register, which contains only Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, the bureau estimations are somewhat optimistic because, from a level of 3.12 million units and 430.9 million euro in 2014, following a slight increase in quantity and value for this year (3.17 million units and 446.8 million euro) and reach in 2018 about 3.57 million units and 531.3 million euro. In quantitative terms, the growth rate CAGR (compounded Annual Growth Rate) will be placed at 3.4% between 2014-2018, and the index value will be 5.4%. However, in relation to the Eastern European market for windows (valued at 29.7 million in 2018), the reuniting Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria have a share of  only 12%, the greatest part being represented by the Russian Federation and Ukraine (with a share of 59.1%). Regardless of analysts' estimations, the real growth depends on several macroeconomic factors (including geopolitical one) that do not have a direct relation with on the actions of managers in the industry, so that the forecasts could be diverted. Moreover, because of the close connection with the construction sector, the forecasts have only a relatively low degree of certainty.